Time was when people thought a bubble was something kids blew, and you put into a bath.
Time was when the South Sea Bubble and Tulip Bubble were things that only historians seemed to know about. “This time,” to coin a phrase, “it is different.” Bubbles are now things that not only all investors know about, but non-investors do too.
Joseph Kennedy sold his stock after a shoe shine boy asked his advice on what stocks to buy. “I smell bubble,” thought Joe, or words to that effect, and the Kennedy...Read More
In Japan the Nikkei 225 had risen from 8,515 back in October to 15,627 earlier this week. Yesterday the index lost 7.5 per cent, falling back to 14,483.
In the US, the Dow rose from 12,542 last November, to 15,387 earlier this week.
In the...Read More
Posted May 24, 2013The markets like QE. You could say that in much the same way as you could say the sun is quite hot – that is to say the sun the star, not the ‘Sun’ the newspaper. But what will happen when QE is finally stopped, even reversed? Yesterday may have...Read More
Posted May 24, 2013It appears that the Chinese economy lurched backwards again in May. The Eurozone remained firmly in recession, or is that depression? So much for things looking up!
You may know that the Purchasing Managers’ Indices follow a formula, with any score over 50 meaning expansion; under 50 indicates contraction....Read More
Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz reckons that US student loans are the next big western economic crisis in the making – the next sub-prime. In the UK, the numbers are not quite so scary, but we do seem to be adopting many of the worst elements of the US economy.
Was it down to bad weather or was it more ominous than that? UK retail sales fell 1.3 per cent in April after dipping 0.6 per cent the month before. Of late the news on the UK economy has been okay. Not brilliant that is for sure, but much better...Read More
Posted May 22, 2013
In 2005 the UK was in fifth place. In terms of household disposable income per head, only the US, Luxembourg, Norway and Germany were ahead of us.
Now look at 2011. According to the ONS, the UK is now in 12th spot.
Then the story...Read More
According to data from the ONS, the number of people aged 65 or over in employment has risen from 890,000 in the first quarter of 2012 to just under a million in Q1 of this year.
According to a survey from NS&I, just under a third of Britain's adults...Read More
Be under no doubt, record low interest rates and quantitative easing are the main reasons why equities are riding high at the moment. There is this view that central banks control interest rates; that they can determine flows of money. So why panic about rising rates spoiling the party? Central...Read More
Posted May 22, 2013Is it all based on a lie? The central banks in the US, the UK and Japan are creating money. They are going out and – via the mechanism known as quantitative easing – are buying government debt. This forces the price of government debt upwards, making other assets look...Read More
Posted May 15, 2013
Here is your starter for ten points. Who was Chancellor of the Exchequer when the UK re-entered the gold standard? Bzzzz. Yes, that’s right, it was Winston Churchill. Now for your next question, who was chancellor in the 1930s, and adopted economic policies not dissimilar from those being applied in...Read More
Posted May 15, 2013
It’s more of a trickle than a gush. It does appear that the UK economy is on the mend, however. But be warned, even as the ink dries on the computer monitor on which this article is being written, two pieces of news break that change the picture. There...Read More
Here are two technical terms, before we get underway: fiscal multiplier and blinkered. A fiscal multiplier simply describes the relationship between government spending and GDP. Blinkered, which was a theory developed by Professor Obvious from the school of common sense, may apply George Osborne.
Here is some simple maths....Read More
The news on UK plc has been pleasing of late, but two doubts remain. Okay, the UK is expanding again, but it is growing from a very low base and very slowly. Secondly, is it the wrong type of growth?
So here is your starter for ten points: What...Read More
Let's hope you are sitting down because this may come as a shock. It turns out that a lot of Brits are not saving enough.
According to Prudential: “One in seven (14 per cent) people planning to retire this year will depend on the State Pension as they have...Read More
What is going on at Marks and Spencer? Profits were down 14 per cent to their lowest level since 2005, and its boss Marc Bolland has said his efforts to turn the business around will take time.
But does it all add up? Cast your mind back to 2004....Read More
“SEIS makes the tax breaks on ISAs look miserly,” or says Jeff Lynn, co-founder and CEO of Seedrs. “Yet,” he says, “few investors have even heard of it.”
Mr Lynn is not wrong. The Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme offers investors 50 per cent income tax rate, even if they are...Read More
Posted May 17, 2013The recession continues, but maybe there were a couple of bits of good (ish) news lurking in the latest data on the economies that make up the Eurozone.
The Eurozone is still in recession. GDP contracted by 0.2 per cent in Q1 of this year, according to data out yesterday. The...Read More
Posted May 16, 2013For the record, the FTSE 100 peaked on December 30 1999 with a score of 6930. It then crashed, almost halving over the next few years. By the middle of the first decade of this century it was back in recovery mode, and by October 2007 hit 6721. Then it...Read More
Posted May 15, 2013With the FTSE 100 now into the mid-6700s, it is in territory not seen since the last century. Indeed it is only 200 points off passing its all-time record set in December 1999.
But can it last?
There is clearly a disconnection between the FTSE 100 and the UK economy, but then...Read More
Posted May 21, 2013
We asked is the debt on your home ‘a heavy burden’, ‘somewhat of a burden’ or ‘no problem at all’. The survey said: UH UHHHHH.
Actually, it was a bit more positive than that. The ONS has been looking at what it calls the burden of property debt in the UK,...Read More
Posted May 14, 2013