Is London set to lose its number one spot?
29 Feb 2008 [0 Comments | 70 views]
Not so long ago, the headline of one tabloid newspaper proclaimed – London; capital of the world. Whether you believe London deserves that accolade, one thing is for sure, the city brings in a huge amount of readies to the UK. It also brings in a huge array of talent from abroad – just stand by Liverpool Street Station and observe the Armani suits and hear the foreign accents.
But of late, the shiny veneer of London has suffered a couple of nasty blotches. First there was Northern Rock, when the UK suffered its first run on a bank since Queen Victoria was on the throne; then there was Alistair Darling’s decision to impose a £30,000 tax charge on the non-domiciled residents of these shores.
Do either of those things matter? Yesterday, the latest Global Financial Centres Index, was published. The good news, London is still number one; the bad news, it’s lost marks, and London's lead over New York has narrowed over the last 12 months.
Is this just a temporary slide? Who is to blame? But in the long-term, is the success enjoyed by London a good, or a bad thing?
Hope emerges over ashes of US
29 Feb 2008 [0 Comments | 61 views]
Amid warnings of doom for the US economy, a piece of good news poked its head above the parapet yesterday. First off with the dire warnings was Ben Bernanke. Alas, plain speaking Ben drew an unfavourable comparison with the dotcom crash. Yesterday was the occasion of his twice-yearly report to the Senate Banking Committee, and [...]
House prices see fourth successive monthly drop
29 Feb 2008 [0 Comments | 44 views]
It’s a bit like love and marriage, or even a horse and carriage. House prices fall, property market experts tell us not to fret. Bad news and hype on house prices – they just go together. This morning the Nationwide announced a 0.5 per cent fall in house prices on last month. It has now [...]
Markets
29 Feb 2008 [0 Comments | 59 views]
chart of the day
29 Feb 2008 [0 Comments | 52 views]
Did Mrs Thatcher squander our money?
28 Feb 2008 [0 Comments | 72 views]
When people talk about the economic legacy of Margaret Thatcher, there seem to be two schools of thought. Some see her as the UK’s saviour, others point to North Sea oil and say she was lucky. They say she only managed what she did thanks to the vast stream of revenue flowing in from our right hand side, from that cold sea. They then go a step further and say we wasted the money.
Now PricewaterhouseCoopers has joined the debate. According to John Hawksworth, PWC's chief economist, if, instead of blowing the money from the North Sea we had saved it, then right now the UK would be sitting on a sovereign wealth fund worth £450bn, bigger than the funds in Russia, Kuwait and Qatar combined.
The Guardian reported Mr Hawksworth as saying, “Since oil revenues were greatest in the first half of the 1980s, this was also when this potential effect was greatest. In practice, had the oil revenues not been there, it seems most likely that some combination of higher taxes and lower current spending would have taken the strain, although we can never know for sure."
Apparently, in Norway much of the money was put away, and today the country is sitting on an impressive sovereign wealth fund. Mr Hawksworth added, “Without such a fund, it is hard to dispel the suspicion that, in 30 or 40 years time, many of us may be sitting around looking enviously at the Norwegians and others and wondering: where did our oil money go?"
There is no doubt we are not saving enough. The economic boom of recent years has been funded in part at least by consumer and government borrowing.
But equally, we have to ask the question: what would have happened to the UK without Thatcher’s reforms?
It is a contentious point, and for every person who believes Mrs T transformed Britain for the better, there is someone else who
House prices: was boom down to low supply or loose credit?
28 Feb 2008 [3 Comments | 78 views]
It is one of those seemingly perennial questions. Have house prices gone up because of low supply, or was the boom down to easy supply of money?
It’s an important question. Property bulls argue that house prices have got years of growth in them, thanks to demographic factors meaning demand is set to outstrip low supply. Market forces, it is then argued, will ensure prices just go up and up.
The counter argument is that actually, the demand the bulls refer to is not actually demand in the proper economic sense at all. An economist would define demand as being related to what consumers can afford, quite different from aspirational demand.
So the question then, is not are house prices going to be driven up because there is a shortage of homes, it is rather can people afford to splash out more money. If they can’t, then it’s irrelevant how much they want a new home, if they can’t afford it, well that’s it, end of debate.
Now, Capital Economics has taken a look at house price growth over the last four years or so, and asked how much growth in house prices has been down to looser credit.
"Over the last ten years or so,†it said, “there has been
markets
28 Feb 2008 [0 Comments | 61 views]