UK stutters to near recession pace, as saving ratio plummets to lowest ever level
30 Jun 2008 [0 Comments | 218 views]
Here is the good news. We are 0.9 per cent better off than a year ago. That's after allowing for inflation and tax. So that's all right then; sure, the economy is slowing down but, even so, we still got better off.
It is just that when you drill into the latest data from the Office for National Statistics, all of a sudden the picture looks a lot less rosy. And we are left questioning the data.
Latest estimates out at the end of last week suggest the UK economy expanded by a mere 0.3 per cent in the first quarter that is barely above recession pace.
Furthermore, and this is a little odd, our savings ratio, which is already far too low, fell to just 1.1 per cent in the first quarter. The ONS have never recorded this ratio so low. Never, not since records began in 1959.
And from beyond the Office for National Statistics, other data out at the end of last week paints an even more bleak picture. The UK's Consumer Confidence index from GfK NOP fell to its lowest level since 1990, while Hometrack recorded the biggest monthly fall in house prices in June it has yet seen.
Actually, though, it does kind of make sense. Recently the ONS also revealed data to suggest the High Street enjoyed its biggest ever year-on-year rise since 1986. This may seem odd, but put it all together, and the jigsaw pieces reveal a picture.
Falling house prices: is it just a credit crunch thing?
30 Jun 2008 [1 Comment | 213 views]
In yesterday's Sunday Times, economics editor David Smith puzzled on why house prices were falling so fast.
"I have been puzzling about why Nationwide and Halifax surveys have been showing such sharp price drops, at least as bad as the corresponding stage of the early 1990s slump, when economic conditions are more favourable today,he said.
Well, fret not. The reason can be revealed.
Dow fall brings back memories of the 1930s
30 Jun 2008 [0 Comments | 203 views]
Hearing the latest scores from the markets seems more interesting then listening to the football results these days, such is the frequency with which records get broken. Then again, when you look at the daily changes, these seem more like the cricket results.
The Dow Jones had another bad day in the field on Friday, seeing another 106 runs scored against it. This follows a 358 innings put in by the bears on Thursday.
It certainly seems to be the case that the bears have got some fast bowlers in their side at the moment, while the Dow has got a batting line up which could not even make the England team.
In fact, with just one day to go, the Dow appears to be on course for suffering its worst June since the 1930s. At close of play on Friday,
Banks and builders try to find right stuff
30 Jun 2008 [0 Comments | 241 views]
Rights issues are in the news again. Bradford and Bingley has turned Clive Cowdery, its would-be investor, away with a flea in his ear. HBOS’s share price seems to be fluctuating up and down and around its planned rights issue price – leaving the fundraising in doubt one moment, and sure to go ahead the next; and now Britain’s biggest house builder, Taylor Wimpey, has joined the fundraising trail.
Crash!
27 Jun 2008 [0 Comments | 177 views]
Down went markets yesterday. Up went the price of oil.
It was a day of carnage. A day when shares in the world’s largest automobile maker fell to their lowest level in 33 years. A day when Libya said there was too much oil in supply and it was to CUT production. A day when the Bank of England governor Mervyn King called for us all to “face up to reality,†and said he had no idea how much house prices were going to fall. In banking land, Tim Bond, chief equity strategist at Barclays Capital said: “We are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell.â€
But here is the strangest comment of the day. On
Inflation is everywhere, just not here
27 Jun 2008 [0 Comments | 208 views]
It all started innocuously enough.
After choosing to leave interest rates on hold the Fed put out a statement which said: "The committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year."
The Fed’s optimism on inflation builds on the belief that wage inflation is firmly in check. It is like that in the UK too, of course. Yesterday, data from the Industrial Relations Services, here in Blighty, revealed that company salary awards rose from 3.2 to 3.3 per cent in the three months to the end of May – hardly the stuff inflation is made of.
The mildly good news continued with
Oil: shock, awe and then good sense
27 Jun 2008 [0 Comments | 220 views]
Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya's National Oil Corporation, put his spoke in. The world is oversupplied with oil he said, and in any case, Libya is so put out by US action in Iran that it is considering reducing its supply of oil.
So the day has come when Libya plans economic sanctions against the US.
Meanwhile, OPEC president Chakib Khelil, speaking on French television, said he thought the price of oil could hit $150 or even $170 a barrel.
And yet, more evidence emerged to suggest oil will fall back, eventually.
In the UK,
Yet digital future gives light at end of tunnel
27 Jun 2008 [0 Comments | 149 views]
But in adversity there is opportunity. While all around markets crash, there are still opportunities lurking.
Above, it was argued above that we are witnessing the continuation of events first started when dotcoms crashed.
Maybe it will end when the next technological revolution begins.
And that is quite interesting, because according to KPMG, content creation in digital entertainment
Chart of the day
27 Jun 2008 [0 Comments | 152 views]
Wind power: hot air, or can we sail to victory over climate change and expensive oil?
26 Jun 2008 [0 Comments | 230 views]
Wind is in the news this morning, with the government due to announce renewable energy plans. Is wind a partial answer, or just hot air? There is so much contradictory evidence out there, it is difficult to decide. Yet few questions are more important. In this article we drill down to the key issues.
When Christopher Columbus, that's the sailor, not the film director, set out in 1492, he not only discovered the Americas, he also provided a lesson on how we can slash the cost of travel and go some way at least to winning the war against the terror of climate change.
Think about how he got there. He sailed, under
