The five most dangerous words: ‘British jobs for British workers’
30 Jan 2009 [0 Comments | 186 views]
Common sense isn’t always right.
It is difficult not to agree with protestors at a giant oil refinery yesterday. “We have a growing problem in the engineering and construction industry where UK workers are being excluded from important projects. The Government must take urgent action to deal with this situation as tensions are reaching boiling point,” said Derek Simpson, joint leader of Unite.
And across the land, people munching on their breakfast, or driving to work, nod their heads in agreement. It is ludicrous to recruit workers from abroad, when there are British workers who can do the job just as well.
Gordon Brown called for “British jobs for British workers,” and yesterday, protestors echoed that call.
It is just that we are seeing the thin end of a wedge. We are now entering the most dangerous phase in the credit crunch. Governments across the world are now faced with conceivably their most important challenge. It is vital that the other side of the argument is put forward, or else the credit crunch really will degenerate into a full scale depression.
Honda heralds new phase in deflation
30 Jan 2009 [0 Comments | 206 views]
Honda revealed plans to halt production for four months at its UK base yesterday. In some ways, it’s not a bad deal for the 3,000 workers who are affected. They will receive full pay for two months, and 60 per cent of normal pay for the remainder of the time. It is understood some workers have accepted a redundancy package.
Meanwhile, Aston Martin has introduced a three-day week. "Following detailed consultation with our trade union partners we have agreed further measures to help manage our way through this challenging period, while minimizing the impact on our employees as much as possible," said an Aston Martin spokesman.
The Honda and Aston moves are both examples of how wage deflation is beginning to emerge. Those who fear that the recent stimulus measures will create inflation down the line, need to wake up.
Inflation is dead, deflation is back, just like in the 1930s. By the time we have felt its full impact, we will be left longing for the good old days of the 1970s, when inflation topped 20 per cent.
Right now
Water, water, not quite everywhere
30 Jan 2009 [0 Comments | 232 views]
What’s the most valuable commodity in the world?
Is it oil? No. Is it gold? No.
It’s wet, it’s runny, and it’s everywhere, and it’s called water.
In Samuel Taylor Coleridge's famous The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, it goes like this: “Water, water, everywhere, nor any drop to drink.” Homer Simpson said it differently: “Water, everywhere, so let's all have a drink.”
The economic equivalent might read: “Water, water, everywhere, but not enough to quench demand.”
And now it’s come under the spotlight at Davos, with the publication of a new report.
“Water has been consistently under-priced in many places around the world and, as a result, has been wasted and overused,” said the report. It goes on to say that many places in the world are on the verge of “water bankruptcy” following a series of regional water “bubbles” over the past 50 years that fuelled economic growth.
And this is the killer: “As the world economy expands
House prices see another plunge, both here and over there
30 Jan 2009 [0 Comments | 327 views]
It’s been another busy 24 hours in the story of the Anglo-Saxon housing market crash.
Even Nationwide virtually gave up on trying to put a positive gloss on its latest figures on UK house prices. Meanwhile, according to the Bank of England there was a slight lift in mortgage approvals in December.
Across the pond, sales of new houses fell to a new record low, prompting Capital Economics to say this
IMF puts its boot in Britain, but is it deserved?
29 Jan 2009 [2 Comments | 219 views]
Not so long ago, the IMF was in love with Britain. Each time it released its quarterly economic global economic outlook survey, it heaped eulogy on the UK and its then chancellor, a certain G Brown.
Now the boot is on the other foot. The UK will be the worst performing of all the world’s developed economies in 2009, says the report.
The economy will contract by 2.8 per cent this year, predicted the IMF. This will be the worst economic performance in any year since the end of the Second World War.
Mind you, we may be hitting the ground faster than everybody else, but at least we won’t be running along at rock bottom alone for very long.
The IMF also expects Germany to contract by minus 2.5 per cent, the US by minus 1.6 per cent and Japan by minus 2.6 per cent. France, Spain and Italy are expected to contract by minus 1.9, minus 1.7 and minus 2.1 per cent. As for China, it is now expected to grow by a mere 6.7 per cent, and before you say, well at least China is not doing too badly, just bear in mind economists reckon China has to grow by 8 per cent just to keep unemployment in check.
The global economy, by the way, is expected to expand by 0.5 per cent, and will also be the worst performance since the end of the last World War.
But you know what, there is a problem with these forecasts.
It really will take a generation to pay for recession
29 Jan 2009 [0 Comments | 215 views]
It kind of depends. It depends on what happens to growth, it depends on what happens to the future course of the rate of interest.
Here is the bad news; it seems that whatever happens, it won’t be until the 2030s that the UK public net debt as a percentage of GDP returns to the level seen before the credit crunch. So, when David Cameron says the government is burdening a generation with the cost of paying for its current measures, he is right. At least that’s what the latest green budget from the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) has concluded.
Here is the good news: the cost of repaying the public debt, as a percentage of GDP, won’t be especially high, or unusual. At least, it may be like that.
First things first. When the Tories complain that the current government is responsible for seeing borrowing rise, they are only half right.
IFS rushes in to defend VAT cut
29 Jan 2009 [0 Comments | 203 views]
Of all the measures revealed by Alistair Darling designed to kick start the economy, the one that came under the most amount of flak was the cut in VAT.
Few people seemed to have been able to see any wisdom in the move at all. It won’t make a difference, they argued; who is going to be influenced by a 2 per cent odd fall in price? Meanwhile, retailers fretted over the cost of implementing the cut.
But, yesterday, the Institute of Fiscal Studies came out in defence of the measure: “The temporary cut in the standard VAT rate from 17.5 to 15 per cent is a better stimulus measure than its critics suggest,” argued the IFS.
Its reasoning is both sound and fascinating, but, even so, it seems the IFS analysis missed the point.
Putin and Chinese premier lay into Western greed
29 Jan 2009 [1 Comment | 246 views]
And so, the tables turned.
Yesterday, at the World Economic Forum, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Wen Jiabao, China’s Premier, laid into the West.
Mr Wen, from his lofty perch upon a high horse, talked about the banks' “blind pursuit of profit” and lamented their “lack of self-discipline”. He also referred to the “unsustainable model of development characterized by prolonged low savings and high consumption.”
Mr Putin was ruthless in his condemnation of the US fiscal and monetary stimulus. He said
Small beer, grave concerns, but maybe it was the right thing
28 Jan 2009 [1 Comment | 199 views]
Mandy is on the racks. Yesterday, he made his big announcement on how he was going to help the UK car industry, and unions, analysts and Tories are furious.
Tony Woodley, the joint general secretary of the union Unite, could barely contain his rage. It’s a “huge disappointment,” he said. The Tories were up in arms. It’s "pretty small beer," said Ken Clarke; and John Thurso, spokesmen for the Liberal Democrats in these matters , talked about "grave concerns".
It is a little odd, but among the more vociferous of the government’s critics were those who normally speak out against any form of government subsidy. Even the Torygraph was seething. “I can't really believe what I'm reading,” said the Telegraph’s Richard Tyler, “Lord Mandelson has spent the last two months having his ear bent by the car makers about the financing crisis engulfing the industry and he has just given his response. And it's meaningless.”
The thing that seems to have really got people's goat is that the banks, whose fault this crisis is in the first place, have received so much, while the poor innocent car makers are insulated with pennies.
Others are talking about a north–south divide; the City gets all the money it needs, but the manufacturing heartlands are betrayed.
It’s a bit rich of the Tories, of course. This is the same party that turned its back on manufacturing in the 1980s, and largely sat back in the early 1990s recession and let market forces do their worst.
As for the north–south argument, you may have noticed most of the banks which have availed themselves of government money are not London based at all: Royal Bank of Scotland, Halifax Bank of Scotland and Newcastle’s Northern Rock.
But these arguments are not the point. Rather the point is this.
Why we shouldn’t be yawning over yuan and dollar
28 Jan 2009 [0 Comments | 168 views]
Did you know that, in the 1930s, it was the countries with large balance of payments surpluses which suffered the most?
It’s bad news for Germany, Japan and China. Well, maybe not so much for Japan, which has already had a fair share of bad news, and it's hard to believe she can do much worse than she has been doing anyway.
Germany, of course, has mounting problems. The German economy is expected to contract by around 2 per cent this year, not that much better than the UK. More to the point, until recently Germany was expected to escape quite lightly, so the prospects for that country are worsening. (This is one of the reasons why we have a feeling that predictions the pound will fall further against the euro may be overblown – the other reasons being that France has its problems too – with 10 per cent of the labour force working in the auto industry – Spain is seeing unemployment shooting off the chart, and Italy is as good as bust.)
But what about China?
This is a very important issue ...