Airline crash, Chinese subsidies end: oil can only go one way

Airlines fold. Something big came to an end in China. Two events, two ends of the earth. Put them together – and you sow the seeds of recovery.

“I remember the time,” said the old man, “when you could fly from London to a European capital and still get change from a...Read More

Oil drops like stone, then bounces like rubber ball

The story was already half-written, when OPEC put its spokes in.

Oil was down again yesterday, falling to just $102. That was the lowest price since April and $43 dollars down on the year high.

For several months now, it has been predicted here that oil was near peak, and would...Read More

Posted Sep 10, 2008

Markets surge, exuberance returns – it's magic

Sometimes you can point to a specific moment when everything began to change. The outcome of a four-hour tennis match is often determined by a handful of points won or lost at key moments in the match. And so it is with the economy. In the US, on Sunday, one...Read More

Posted Sep 09, 2008

The pound in your pocket falls again, but is this good or bad?

The pound fell to a record low against the euro last night, and to the lowest level seen against the dollar since April 2006, and it was all Alistair Darling’s fault. At least that’s what media reports were saying this morning. Mr Darling’s negative comments about the economy have so...Read More

Posted Sep 02, 2008

Not even roaring Vlad and wailing Gustav can push oil back up

When it comes to oil policy, sometimes it seems as if we have got a tiger by its tail. We are just hanging on for dear life, we dare not let go unless the beast turns on us. Yet, if we were to throw sufficient resources into finding alternatives, it...Read More

Posted Sep 01, 2008

Spanish house prices to crash 25 per cent

And the rain in Spain jumps out of the drain.

Right now, things in Spain seem to be a lot like the UK, only more so.

While we fret about inflation going over 4 per cent, in Spain the 5 per cent mark has been breached.

Spanish inflation in July hit 5.3 per cent,...Read More

Posted Aug 14, 2008

Oil could hit $200, says Professor. Is he right?

Here is a strange thing. You may recall from a few weeks ago, predictions from the National Housing Federation that house prices will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years. Well now, the oil industry has seen its equivalent of this prediction.

According to Professor Paul Stevens, former...Read More

Posted Aug 11, 2008

Oil, corn and the rest of the commodity pack fall again

And the price of oil falls again. So too does corn. Platinum is down, gold too. Is the commodity boom over?

At the time of writing, oil is just 24 cents over the magical $120 a barrel price. That’s the cheapest it has been since early May. Platinum is now at...Read More

Posted Aug 05, 2008

Eurozone crawls to near standstill too, but at least the French put in the extra hours

And now to cap it all, Europe is in a mess again. But, at least headless Nick Sarkozy is getting something right.

Earlier this week Spain’s finance minister Pedro Solbes cut growth forecasts from 2.3 to 1.6 per cent for 2008. But with Spanish house prices falling even faster than its...Read More

Posted Jul 25, 2008

Oil slide continues

Bubble watching is a difficult game. The Crash of 1929 was preceded by a number of phases of panic sell offs, followed by recoveries. Even the run up to the dotcom bust saw a number of sharp sell offs, followed by even sharper recoveries. But the continuous fall in the...Read More

Posted Jul 24, 2008

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