Here is a question for you. Do you trust forecasters? It seems that if this crisis has one single characteristic, it is that the so-called experts totally failed to call it.

It seems that they may be repeating that trick. Once again, it seems the experts have placed their heads in the clouds. This time it relates to China.

Eight is supposed to be a lucky number in China. Funnily enough, eight also happens to be the number of percentage points by which the Chinese economy needs to grow in order for the unemployment rate to remain static. If it falls below this level, then supposedly unemployment will rise.

That is a worry, because it appears quarter on quarter growth in China at the end of last year plunged, and fell perilously close to zero.

In fact, economic growth behind the Great Wall was 6.8 per cent in the last quarter of 2009, compared with the same quarter 12 months earlier.

To put that in context, growth in 2007 was 13 per cent. But the point is that the annual rate fell steadily in 2008.The first quarter saw 10.6 per cent, and the third quarter saw 9 per cent expansion, for example. Information on the quarter on quarter growth is not available, but bearing in mind the expansion seen earlier in the year, then the equation really only adds up if the final quarter saw expansion grind to a virtual halt.

It appears that China may well be in recession.

Chinese inflation has crashed, falling from 8.7 per cent last February to just 1.2 per cent by the year’s end.

A knock on effect is occurring. Japanese exports to China fell 35 per cent in December. (They were down by 26 per cent to the US and by 42 per cent to Europe.)

But economic forecasts for China remain close to the magic 8 per cent level.

Citigroup, for example, has downgraded its forecast for 2009 from 8.2 to 7.6 per cent.

The most bearish of the main forecasters is Goldman Sachs. It reckons 2009 will see an annual growth rate of 6 per cent, but says the risk to its forecast is on the upside.

By contrast, in a rather clever piece of analysis, John Authers from the FT told in his daily video broadcast yesterday, how Chinese electricity production, that for years correlated closely with growth, crashed at the end of last year, suggesting a significant slowdown in production.

The hope that the Chinese economy will recover rests on two pillars. Firstly, the massive $585bn fiscal expansion. Secondly, in China, unlike in the West, banks are lending.

The trouble is that China is simply too reliant on overseas demand.

The importance of this demand was underestimated by analysts, that is why the economy is doing so much worse than they forecast. It seems they are still underestimating the importance of this again.

Ultimately, China needs to see a sharp rise in consumption. Just as we were too reliant on consumers in the UK and the US, in China it is the opposite.

Unemployment is rising, the dangers of social unrest grow.

In a way, though, hope does shine through.

If you believe the underlying problem with the global economy is global imbalances, then the burgeoning Chinese crisis may enforce the very measures that are needed to rebalance the global economy.