The China miracle continues

By mbaxter 17 Jul 2008 [0 Comments | 156 views]


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Meanwhile, China expanded by 10.1 per cent in the year to the end of the second quarter. Okay, this was the slowest rate of growth since 2005, but frankly, any growth rate over 10 per cent is so remarkable that it would be just churlish to regret the falls from the heights of last year.

Inflation in China is down too. Not a lot, it is true, but June saw prices rise by 7.1 per cent, compared to 7.8 per cent in the previous month.

But, a cloud does hang over China. Exports were down. Ummm. Well, that isn’t quite true. Export growth was merely 21.9 per cent in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. By contrast, the last half of 2007 saw annual export growth of 25.7 per cent.

And with a slowdown like that, speculation is growing that the Chinese government is set to put a halt to the rise in the yuan.

It would be a disaster if this happened.

A rise in Chinese exports is just not possible when the developed world is in such dire straits.

The US and UK need to export their way out of trouble. The US is China’s biggest trading partner, and while it is true it also does a lot of trade with Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong, never forget these territories trade with the US and Europe too. These days everything is connected. If the West is slowing, if countries such as the US and UK gradually move to a more sustainable growth path, based on higher savings, less imports and higher exports, then trade with China will be hit.

The high price of oil will hit trade too, as transport costs rise and rise.

China’s oil subsidies are merely disguising the impact of the high price of oil. But they can’t hide the rise altogether, and in the longer term won’t be able to hide the rise at all.

The Chinese growth story has reached that stage when she can no longer rely on growth through selling more and more to the wealthier countries. She needs to look internally, and allow Chinese consumers to have a bigger share in the growth story.

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