When the dust has settled on this saga in economic history, attentions will turn to China. Is it really a coincidence that the global economy hit its most serious financial crisis in almost 80 years, at a time when the US is slowly losing its position as the world’s largest economy?

If you cast your mind back, way back, to a different era, say, the beginning of this year, talk was the world had decoupled; that the US could hit recession, and the rest of the world could carry on growing. The US could sneeze all she wanted, went the idea behind decoupling, the rest of the world wouldn’t even need to take a paracetamol.

Then there’s that argument that the root cause of this crisis is too much debt. Well, if that is true, explain how it is that on a global basis there has been too much saving – a saving glut?

The truth is, there have been some pretty deep forces rumbling behind the scenes. If the US hadn’t spent its way forward earlier this decade, it is just possible the global economy would have hit recession equally earlier. It is just possible that US spending merely delayed the onset of global recession.

And the reason is this. The combination of new technology and globalization has changed the world. And change, no matter how positive, always brings a downside. Change can create effects that are unpredictable. Earlier this decade, cheap imports and fierce price competition encouraged by the Internet created the danger of deflation. This encouraged central banks to slash interest rates. At the same time, as global GDP expanded at a breakneck pace, global demand struggled to keep up with supply. This created excess savings, which found their way into countries like the US and UK. So it was the combination of low interest rates and excess savings from abroad that fed the Western debt bubble.

The Chinese growth story was also characterized by investment spending outstripping consumer spending. So, excess investment led to an overcapacity of infrastructure – roads going nowhere, for example – and this investment boom fed a thirst for raw material, leading to the commodity boom.

But now, the modern Chinese economy is maturing. This story of China’s growth may be hitting a new stage. The change has been forced upon China by the global financial crisis, but it was always inevitable that this would occur eventually.

In the third quarter, China’s GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 9 per cent. This was a much bigger slowdown than expected; according to Bloomberg, the consensus among economists was for growth of 9.7 per cent. This was the slowest growth rate in five years.

Now, a 9 per cent growth rate is still very impressive, of course, but if you peek below the surface the story gets more interesting.

Export growth is slowing. According to Bloomberg, the contribution to growth from trade, halved in the quarter. Of course, export growth is slowing. More and more economists are now talking about a global recession, and it was always inconceivable that China would see a continuation of export growth in such an environment.

This will inevitably have a knock-on effect upon the rest of the economy. But then the other side of the coin reveals a different story.

Retail sales soared a stunning 23.3 per cent. Meanwhile, urban disposable income for the first nine months rose by 14.7 per cent.

It seems China itself may be ready for a consumer boom.

For some time, Chinese producers have been a crucial component of global supply. Eventually, Chinese consumers will make up an important part of global demand, too, and it seems we are moving closer to that stage.

But there is a worry. Chinese factories are closing. Jobs are not as plentiful as they were. If one was to use kitchen scales to represent the Chinese economy, then what we are seeing is the export side of the scales losing weight, while the consumer spending side is gaining. The big question is this: will the consumer spending side be sufficient to make up for the loss of exports. Despite what the economists say, the jury is still out on that one.