Double trouble for house prices

By Michael Baxter 4 Feb 2010 [0 Comments | 321 views]


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Bad news, it seems, comes in twos, and today we have got two bits of bad new for the housing market.

First off, comes news from the Council of Mortgage Lenders, or CML. It reckons the UK mortgage market is about to suffer from a £300 billion funding gap.

The problem is this. Thanks to the credit crunch the wholesale funding market has gone the way of the dodo. The government has filled the gap though special one off schemes, not to mention quantitative easing, but what happens when this comes to an end?

CML put it this way: “That gap has been filled temporarily by government funds through the special liquidity scheme and the credit guarantee scheme. By 2014, however, both of these schemes will have expired. Hanging over the mortgage market therefore is a major uncertainty about how lenders will be able to refinance this £300bn over time.

“Unless there is a policy approach intended to encourage the development of wholesale funding, we are likely to see a long-term decline in choice for UK mortgage customers.

“That would leave firms continuing to rely on government funding, and the UK at risk of a chronic undersupply of credit – and the rationing of mortgages for customers – for many years to come.”

The CML added “Emergency government action to fill the gap has been welcome. But government support has focused almost exclusively on larger deposit-takers, reinforcing the lack of overall competitiveness in the mortgage market.”

Meanwhile, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) made a rather vicious riposte to the argument that recent gains in house prices are sustainable because unemployment has not suffered to the extent that was expected. NIESR pointed out that taking into account the fact that workers who have kept their jobs are typically working less hours, employment has actually seen even bigger falls than expected. Real wages have not been in line with inflation either. Some argue that it is affordability that counts, but the fact is we have seen  real wages, relative to inflation, fall during the recession. Affordability is being squeezed.

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