Is the worst over? Talk that the housing market may be close to recovery is back on the agenda.

Evidence from the Nationwide, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), and now property web site Rightmove, has provided evidence the housing market may be nearing bottom.

Yesterday, The Sunday Times ran a story on its front page quoting Housing Minister Margaret Beckett saying the government “was worrying about the next housing boom.”

This morning, Rightmove, in its January report on the housing market, said that new listings of properties coming on the market are now very low – around half the level seen in January 2008.

It also said advertising of resale properties is now 20 per cent below the May 2008 peak.

At the same time, Rightmove has detected a sign that enquiries are on the rise. Miles Shipside, Commercial Director of Rightmove said: “Would-be buyers are sniffing that 2009 could be the year of the property deal. The market has plumbed the depths, with agents reporting sales being achieved at a discount of around 25 per cent from peak boom prices. Even though growing unemployment and an increased number of amateur landlords failing to let will add to the amount of forced sales, the reduction in the number of properties coming to market appears to be aligning supply and demand more quickly than in previous downturns. This will help to establish a price floor, and is being assisted by a potential increase in demand from improved buyer affordability due to both lower prices and cheaper mortgages.”

Back in December, the Nationwide revealed a mere 0.4 per cent fall in house prices in November, the most modest monthly fall since January 2008. A couple of weeks ago, Nationwide’s Fionnuala Earley said that the trend is improving. She pointed out that over the last three months prices have fallen by 4.2 per cent, whereas the three-monthly fall in November was 4.9, and the month before that it was 5.0. In fact, November saw the smallest three-monthly fall since May last year.

And at the beginning of this month, Martin Ellis, Chief Economist at the Halifax said: “Improving housing affordability and an easing in the pressure on the majority of households’ finances should support market activity and prices. The house price to earnings ratio – a key affordability measure – is at its lowest for five and a half years.”

Finally, last week, RICS also pointed to a rise in the number of enquiries from new buyers – it was the second month in a row which saw an improvement in buyer enquiries.

But there are snags with all these bullish comments.

First of all, if you examine the latest data from the Halifax, Nationwide and Hometrack, and take the average across the three of them, you will find that December was the worst month recorded so far. So that is hardly conducive to a recovery.

Secondly, while RICS recorded a rise in buyer enquiries last month, it also recorded a fall in the ratio of quarterly sales to stock of houses to its lowest level seen yet during this crisis.

Furthermore, if you examine the Rightmove report a bit more carefully, it is not quite so bullish as you think.

Rightmove’s Miles Shipside also said: “The speed with which prices have declined has been worrying, but it does mean we are potentially reaching the bottom sooner.”

Well, it is actually difficult to disagree with that; the faster house prices fall, the sooner a recovery can begin.

But, with unemployment set to rise, with 2009 set to be the worst year for the economy since the 1930s, or so the ITEM Club has forecast, it does seem counter intuitive to start talking about a recovery in the market.

Besides, if the housing crash proves to anything like the last one, and so far it seems like it is going to be worse, then bear in mind the market was static for years before it began to recover.

The British psyche is so tuned into the view that house prices always go up, that there are no doubt many thousands of people who reckon that right now there are bargains to be had. Some may even make tentative enquiries.

But, before they can buy, they have to sell their home. There may have been a rise in enquiries, combined with a fall in houses coming on the market. But it is a reasonable bet that before these enquiries are converted to sales, there will be a rise in the number of properties for sale too.

Much depends on repossessions, and whether the government really can make a significant difference to the number of properties to be repossessed this year.

But drill through it all and the truth remains, house prices to salaries are too high, and in a recession you would expect the ratio of house prices to average salaries to fall too low.