Global inflation and rate of interest watch.

By mbaxter 31 Jan 2007 [0 Comments | 163 views]


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Many feared that Germany was about to catch the inflation habit. A recent hike in VAT meant prices would necessarily go up, and many feared the worse.

The latest data, however, has calmed nerves. Sure, the German HCPI rate for January has been estimated at 1.7 percent, and that’s up on last month, but then many had expected to see the index jump to 2.2 percent. In other words, the VAT hike did not have the impact many had feared, so that’s good news.

Meanwhile, in Japan, the latest news suggests that the central bank of the rising sun may stay its hand. Many had expected another rate hike soon, but the latest data has recorded a 1.9 percent fall in household spending. It appears that sluggish wage growth and Japanese reluctance to reduce savings are keeping the reins on the economy.

While we are used to talking about sluggish Japan, and comparing its slow growth with the runaway growth in the UK and US, it must be remembered that actually we should be saving more. British and American consumers may have kept the global economy up, but, by failing to save they are sowing the seeds of a future pension crisis.

Meanwhile, across the pond, the Fed is meeting. And later today we will know. With oil climbing upwards, it is thought that the rate will stay on hold. If the Fed does change rates – and frankly they could go either way – it will be a bigger surprise than the Bank of England move earlier this month.

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