By mbaxter 20 Jan 2009 [0 Comments | 137 views]
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Retail price inflation, that’s the inflation index we used to worry about, fell from 3 per cent in November to just 0.9 per cent last month.
Inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) fell from 4.1 to 3.1 per cent. (Retail price inflation includes council tax and mortgage payments costs.)
Actually, the consensus was for an even bigger fall in the consumer price index than that. Furthermore, CPI inflation is still more than a whole percentage point above the Bank of England target.
But don’t be in any doubt, the trend is down. In fact, core inflation, that’s with food, tobacco and energy stripped out, fell from 2 to just 1.1 per cent.
Don’t forget, these are annual figures, and it will take time for month on month falls in prices to lead to annual falls. We saw exactly this pattern with house prices, of course.
Capital Economics said: “The weakness of core inflation and the further downward pressure likely to result from the opening of a large amount of slack in the economy points to a growing danger of a more fundamental and longer-lasting period of deflation further ahead.”
There are those who fear that, once the economy recovers, then all that new money being created, and government spending, will come back to haunt us and lead to a nasty return of inflation.
But these more gloomy fears may yet prove false. The amount of money in calculation depends on the level of bank lending compared to the cash they hold. Recently they have cut back on their liquidity ratios, meaning there has been insufficient money sloshing around the system.
The fear is that if banks return to previous lending ratios, then since there is more cash in the system anyway, inflation will return. But in this era when most British banks are either partially or wholly owned by the government, the government can simply limit the extent of their lending.
There is no reason, at this stage, to assume inflation will return with vengeance come the recovery.








