By one very important measure, stocks are set to crash. This will not be any old crash, but a really major one – as significant as 1929, 1987 or what we saw in 2000 and 2008. And the measure that tells us this is not some obscure ratio, familiar only...Read More
The pound fell to a three year low against the dollar last week, and predictions of doom emanated from the UK’s more cynical press. ‘Oil will go,’ they cried, ‘the cost of holidaying abroad will shoot up,’ they moaned, ‘oh woe is us,’ they lamented. There are indeed strong disadvantages...Read More
Posted Jul 15, 2013
There have been times in the past when the markets got it into their collective head that it was time for buying, even though there were good reasons to think it was really a time for panicking. Take 2007: in that year, the Dow Jones passed a new all-time high,...Read More
Posted Jul 08, 2013
During the height of the euro crisis, politicians in Europe, and indeed central bankers, blamed the markets and credit ratings agencies. Yesterday an official at the Fed followed that tactic too.
Posted Jun 25, 2013
Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, told the ‘FT’: “I do believe that big money does...Read More
Yesterday was a day for selling. But it is noticeable that while gold fell to a 34 month low, and US government bonds to a 22 month low, on the whole equities merely fell to a one month low.
Posted Jun 21, 2013
At the time of writing gold is trading at $1,295....Read More
Something went wrong with the commodity cycle during the year after the financial crisis of 2008, and that something may explain why the recovery took so long. Now there are reasons to believe that this time the commodity cycle is turning. That is good news for commodity importers everywhere –...Read More
Posted Jun 17, 2013
Shale gas and oil – -it is everywhere, or at least if feels that way. It is in Russia, and the US, China, Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil and Mexico. It is in Libya and Algeria, Pakistan and Indonesia. It is in Australia and South Africa, and, at the other end of...Read More
Posted Jun 11, 2013
QE is drawing to a close; that is reason to panic. QE is set to be ramped up; that is reason to panic. That is what some say who see any news as bad news, including news that is totally contradictory.
The US is back, and the economic crisis is drawing...Read More
Posted Jun 03, 2013
Time was when people thought a bubble was something kids blew, and you put into a bath.
Time was when the South Sea Bubble and Tulip Bubble were things that only historians seemed to know about. “This time,” to coin a phrase, “it is different.” Bubbles are now things that not...Read More
Posted May 24, 2013
In Japan the Nikkei 225 had risen from 8,515 back in October to 15,627 earlier this week. Yesterday the index lost 7.5 per cent, falling back to 14,483.
In the US, the Dow rose from 12,542 last November, to 15,387 earlier this week.
In the...Read More
Posted May 24, 2013