Are stocks overvalued or not?

By one very important measure, stocks are set to crash. This will not be any old crash, but a really major one – as significant as 1929, 1987 or what we saw in 2000 and 2008. And the measure that tells us this is not some obscure ratio, familiar only...Read More

It is time for a much cheaper pound

The pound fell to a three year low against the dollar last week, and predictions of doom emanated from the UK’s more cynical press. ‘Oil will go,’ they cried, ‘the cost of holidaying abroad will shoot up,’ they moaned, ‘oh woe is us,’ they lamented. There are indeed strong disadvantages...Read More

Posted Jul 15, 2013

Markets panic over good news

There have been times in the past when the markets got it into their collective head that it was time for buying, even though there were good reasons to think it was really a time for panicking. Take 2007: in that year, the Dow Jones passed a new all-time high,...Read More

Posted Jul 08, 2013

Are markets dominated by feral hogs, bond vigilantes, or all round nice guys?

During the height of the euro crisis, politicians in Europe, and indeed central bankers, blamed the markets and credit ratings agencies. Yesterday an official at the Fed followed that tactic too.

Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, told the ‘FT’: “I do believe that big money does...Read More

Posted Jun 25, 2013

Markets ditch safety and risk

Yesterday was a day for selling. But it is noticeable that while gold fell to a 34 month low, and US government bonds to a 22 month low, on the whole equities merely fell to a one month low.

At the time of writing gold is trading at $1,295....Read More

Posted Jun 21, 2013

Is the commodity super-cycle turning?

Something went wrong with the commodity cycle during the year after the financial crisis of 2008, and that something may explain why the recovery took so long. Now there are reasons to believe that this time the commodity cycle is turning. That is good news for commodity importers everywhere –...Read More

Posted Jun 17, 2013

We’ve got loads of oil

Shale gas and oil – -it is everywhere, or at least if feels that way. It is in Russia, and the US, China, Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil and Mexico. It is in Libya and Algeria, Pakistan and Indonesia. It is in Australia and South Africa, and, at the other end of...Read More

Posted Jun 11, 2013

Prepare for bond crash, or prepare as markets move to risk

QE is drawing to a close; that is reason to panic. QE is set to be ramped up; that is reason to panic. That is what some say who see any news as bad news, including news that is totally contradictory.

The US is back, and the economic crisis is drawing...Read More

Posted Jun 03, 2013

Bubble watching: from Chinese debt to US student loans

Time was when people thought a bubble was something kids blew, and you put into a bath.

Time was when the South Sea Bubble and Tulip Bubble were things that only historians seemed to know about. “This time,” to coin a phrase, “it is different.” Bubbles are now things that not...Read More

Posted May 24, 2013

Markets take fright: are they afraid for a good reason or just scared of the shadows?

In Japan the Nikkei 225 had risen from 8,515 back in October to 15,627 earlier this week. Yesterday the index lost 7.5 per cent, falling back to 14,483.

In the US, the Dow rose from 12,542 last November, to 15,387 earlier this week.

In the...Read More

Posted May 24, 2013

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