The cheap pound should have started making its impact by now. And yet the latest trade figures don’t bring even a hint of promise.

Mind you, there are those who say the euro is the currency that is about to suffer. Parity with the dollar is on the cards.

Here is a question for you. If the pound eventually falls to parity with the euro, as some predict, and the euro falls to parity with the dollar, what will the dollar–pound exchange rate be?

Ummm, well, you don’t need to be brain of Britain to work that one out.

So let’s start with what the trade figures say.

Well, they were pretty awful. The UK’s seasonally adjusted deficit on trade in goods and services was £3.8 billion in January, compared with the deficit of £2.6 billion in December. More to the point, it was the biggest monthly deficit for some time. Exports are supposed to be going up, but they are not. January saw exports come in at thirty-two and a half billion. That’s lower than the figures for October, November and December.

Okay, we know there is a time lag between a fall in a currency and improvement in trade. In fact, economic theory says that in the short run, the balance of trade may get worse, as sales may be fixed, but the cost of importing will rise. But once the economy adjusts, we should import less and export more, so things should improve. In fact, the curve plotting the trajectory of our trade balance following a depreciation is said to be “J”-shaped. Hence economists have coined the phrase “J-curve” to describe what happens to trade following a fall in a currency’s value.

But surely we should be past the dip in the “J” by now.

At least we can take comfort from the fact that the latest survey of manufacturing from CIPS/Markit, albeit relating to February, had exporting booming. Maybe we just have to wait a tad longer.

Meanwhile, Erik F. Nielsen, Goldman Sachs Chief European Economist told Bloomberg: “People are very bearish on the U.K., probably more than they should be…The euro is clearly in its biggest crisis since it started, so it’s kind of strange that it’s overvalued.”

He went on to say: “There is a permanently higher risk premium on investments in the euro-zone and on the euro.” He predicted euro parity with the dollar at some point over the next few years.

But if the euro is set to reach parity with the dollar, what does this say about the pound? Well, Mr Nielsen has some reassuring words: “We think the U.K. will outperform the euro-zone in growth terms…We have a constructive forecast for sterling.”

The real snag at the moment is that just about every country in the world is hoping to recover by exporting. This just can not happen.

If every country tries to keep imports down and pushes for more exports, the ultimate result will be global recession.

Because the UK is not in the euro, we have a slight advantage, and Britain may eventually prove to be one of the few countries to pull the export trick off.

But the wait for the export-led recovery just seems to be going on and on.