According to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), the World Cup will have a positive impact on the UK economy, resulting in a net £1.6 billion short‐run boost to GDP in June and July. This will arise through increased consumer expenditure and business spending on advertising, which will be partially offset by productivity losses associated with workforce absenteeism. Or so it estimates.

CEBR has based its calculation on the assumption that the bookmakers are right, and that England beats all teams with longer odds of winning, meaning they have assumed England will reach the semi-final.

CEBR said: “Given the minimal time difference between the UK and South Africa, absenteeism is not expected to be as big a concern as the 2002 World Cup in South Korea and Japan. The impact of the timing of matches in the 2002 tournament probably made the overall economic impact of the World Cup negative for the UK economy.

“All going to plan, England’s progress to the semi‐final is predominantly made up of games kicking off at 19.30, minimising the disruption to the average working day. The group stage match between England and Slovenia at 15.00 on Wednesday June 23 is the notable exception, with productivity likely to take a hit. Over the course of the tournament we expect that productivity losses will amount to £0.9 billion to the UK economy.

“The main boost to the UK economy will come in the form of increased consumer spending and business spending on advertising. The convenient timings of key games after work and at the weekend is good news for pubs, off‐licences and supermarkets, who can all expect bumper sales over the next month. ASDA estimates that beer and wine sales will increase by 37 per cent and 41 per cent respectively during the tournament as people hold ‘World Cup parties’. A blast of good weather would compound this impact. We have estimated that the competition will result in an additional £2.5 billion worth of spending over and above normal levels between the start and end of the tournament.

“These factors considered, our estimate is that the World Cup will cause a temporary boost to the UK economy of £1.6 billion, which is roughly the net impact of the increase in consumer and corporate spending and the losses due to absenteeism and reduced productivity.”

Mind you, all those who watched the England game on Saturday in HD, and missed England’s goal when an ad was shown at precisely that moment (this happened to yours truly), must have been counting the cost of their LCD TV.

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World Cup to boost economy