Well, we all know that forecasters don’t have much credibility at the moment. In times of stability, when each year is much like the year before, their predictions seem to be pretty good. The trouble is, when change is in the air, they often seem to be the last to smell it.

It sometimes seems to be like that with weather forecasters too.

For all that, the Centre of Economics and Business Research (CEBR) is one of those companies that normally produces quite lively forecasts. So, just this once, let’s take a gander at what it is saying 2009 has in store.

Actually, the CEBR made ten predictions. By far the most interesting of the lot is their claim that England will win the ashes against Australia. It sees that as about the best thing to happen all year.

The trouble is, sport is a zero sum game. If one sides wins, another loses. It is not like that in business, usually we all win together, and go down together. And CEBR reckons the UK will indeed go down this year, contracting by 2.9 per cent.

It goes on: “In the toughest economic climate in decades and with bank credit at a premium, research by cebr for BDO Stoy Hayward shows that business failures will rise by 50 per cent in 2009 with at least 32,300 firms going bust.”

It goes on to predict a collapse in inflation, and a big rise in unemployment – well no surprise there.

It continues: “With the government forecast for economic growth in 2009 on the optimistic side – and a remarkable bounce back predicted in 2010 – Chancellor Darling is likely to be forced to raise his borrowing forecasts once again in the March Budget. The extra borrowing could reach almost £100 billion over the next three financial years if the recession worsens as we expect. After riding on the highs of the widely acclaimed banking intervention in October, saviour of the world Prime Minister Gordon Brown will be embarrassed by the United Kingdom being overtaken by France and Italy in the world current exchange rate GDP league table by the end of the year due to the recession and weak pound. All this in a year in which the United Kingdom chairs the G20 – the newly significant international forum – and hosts its key financial summit in April. Rumour has it that the topic of the summit is: how not to run public finances, with Brown and Darling leading the discussion along with their Italian counterparts.”

As for the US, it says the unemployment rate will rise from its current 6.7 per cent to 8.5 per cent towards the end of 2009 – the highest since 1983. Obama’s fiscal stimulus plan aims to create three million jobs, but a key question is how efficiently state money will be spent and whether it can be mobilized quickly enough. Monetary policy will also be important – albeit in new guises. We are likely to see a period of negative consumer price inflation, the Fed target rate staying at 0-0.25 per cent through the year, and increasingly unorthodox interventions from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. As one of the foremost experts of the 1930s’ deflationary spiral, Bernanke will innovatively use ‘quantitative and qualitative easing’ – bringing more and a broader range of assets onto the central bank balance sheet.

But the real firework in the CEBR forecast is that it reckons sterling will fall below parity.

And in a way, that is the problem. Yes, sterling may crash further still, and if it does, the UK will fall down the GDP league. But equally it may not. As was said here yesterday, some are now arguing this year will see falls in the euro.

This crisis is evolving. But it seems it all comes down to your view of inflation. Do you think all this money being pumped out will lead to inflation down the line? If you do, then the European Central Bank (ECB) is playing it all rather well – see article below. If, on the other hand, you think the ECB is continuously underestimating the seriousness of this crisis, then 2009 will be the year when the Eurozone will suddenly be haunted by the ECB hesitance.

Will England beat Australia this summer? Who knows. Will the pound rise or fall against the euro? It seems that CEBR can be no more certain about its predictions here than its predictions on the cricket.