By mbaxter 18 Nov 2008 [0 Comments | 96 views]
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Have you noticed how this seems to be the age of octogenarians? There’s the sprightly Alan Greenspan, 82 years young. There is a predecessor at the Fed, Paul Volcker, a veritable whipper snapper, at a mere 81. The triumvirate is complete, of course, with the greatest economist of all, Bruce Forsyth, who is 80.
But it seems that while Mr Greenspan busily tries to defend what he did, and Mr Forsyth prepares for retirement, Mr Volcker is coming back. There are those who say he could be the next US Treasury Secretary. At the very least, he is likely to end up as one of Barack Obama’s key advisers. He has been visible in a lot of photos of the president elect, standing just behind, resplendent in his 6 foot 7 inch frame.
But actually, it is quite important to know what Mr Volcker reckons is going on. Who, or what, he thinks is to blame, and the method he has identified for getting out. Is he a protection-loving, anti-trade man?
Well, he is in London, and yesterday he betrayed some of his thoughts. And an interesting bunch of ideas they are, too.
First of all, he wasted no time getting one over Alan Greenspan. “There are cycles in human nature and it is up to regulators to moderate these excesses. Alan was not a big regulator,” he said.
So, what about Mr Obama’s ideas for saving the US car industry? Mr Volcker said: “He can’t just throw money at the auto industry.” He explained that any government spending must be based on “compelling economic logic.”
What about a way out? He said: “I don’t think anybody thinks we’re going to get through this recession in a hurry.”
But what about executive pay? As Fed chairman under Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan he was the man who took on inflation by putting the brakes on the economy. His approach was mirrored in the UK by the Thatcher government. By no means would one describe him as a leftie.
And yet, he also talked about “tremendous rewards and payments of magnitude for presumed success and not much penalty for failure.”
As you no doubt know, Barack Obama wants to see those earning $250,000 a year taxed more heavily, and the money saved used to help those lower down the income ladder – although Mr Obama went out of his way to talk about helping the middle classes.
Next week, Gordon Brown’s chancellor will be revealing his own tax cuts. It seems Mr Darling is preparing measures to help the poor via the tax credit system.
If he does, he will be swimming against the tide. There is a growing realisation that while incentives galore have encouraged those at the very top to focus on the short-term and enjoy massive financial rewards for doing so, the tax and benefit system provides massive disincentive for those who gradually work their way up the promotion ladder.
It appears Messrs Obama and Volcker understand this. It seems unlikely Messrs Brown and Darling do.








