The new, old economic titan steps forward

By mbaxter 5 Nov 2008 [0 Comments | 90 views]


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When your chief advisor is 6 foot 7 inches, it must make you feel a little more secure. But then again, when he is 81 years old, perhaps your advisor’s muscle – albeit packed into such a large frame – may not be quite so potent.

But for Paul Volcker, his real stature does not so much lie in his physical height, rather it’s his stature in the world of economics that really counts. The giant is one of Barack Obama’s top economic advisors. Some have speculated he will be the next US Treasury Secretary, although it does seem improbable that a man of his advanced years will attain that job – after all, John McCain is like a puppy in comparison.

But, as Greenspan’s star seems to fade, it is Paul Volcker who is suddenly being hailed as the greatest ever chairman of the Fed. And it appears that over the next few months we are going to be hearing a lot more from the man, so maybe it is time we learnt more about him.

Volcker was chairman of the Fed from 1979 to 1987. He was appointed by the Democrat president before last, Jimmy Carter, although his tough, anti-inflation measures did nothing for his boss’s political prospects.

Volcker is really known as an inflation warrior. While Mrs T and her monetarist advisors attempted to tackle inflation in the UK, Mr Volcker did the same in the US, and he was rather good at it, too.

It is often said of the man that he is shy, and avoids publicity. It is also often said he was less politically aware than Greenspan. He did what he thought was right, regardless of the fortunes of his political master.

Greenspan took over from Volcker in 1987, and soon afterwards had to deal with the crisis from the stock market crash of that year. Although his predecessor may have created a formidable reputation for himself, Greenpsan, the maestro, was the PR man extraordinaire. When Greenspan stepped down he was hailed as the greatest Fed chairman ever, Volcker almost forgotten as merely the second-best.

But now it is different. Greenspan fights to preserve his legacy, but it seems to be a hopeless battle. Volcker, by contrast, remains immune from criticism.

Mr Volcker has not always been flattering of Ben Bernanke. “The Federal Reserve has judged it necessary to take actions that extend to the very edge of its lawful and implied powers,” Volcker said back in April. “Simply stated, the bright new financial system, for all its talented participants, for all its rich rewards, has failed the test of the market place,” he also said at that time.

Earlier this year he told the New York Times magazine: “Too many bubbles have been going on for too long … The Fed is not really in control of the situation.” Although he did add, somewhat sympathetically: “I think Bernanke is in a very difficult situation.”

That such a titan of economics is so close to the next president’s ear is good news – it really is good news indeed.

But, just bear this in mind; Volcker’s record as an inflation fighter is without peer. But it isn’t like that now. Inflation is not the worry, it is deflation. It remains to be seen whether an 81-year-old who won his spurs by tackling inflation, is the right man to lead a campaign against the danger of deflation, at a time when debt threatens to strangle the life out of any would-be economic recovery.

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